Lions at Dolphins: Matchup Edges, Statistical Evidence and Market Context
Detroit Lions (5-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-6)·
NFL Week 9, Sunday afternoon·
Kickoff Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ET
Updated Nov 4, 2026, with Week 9 Reasons·
By Inside Edge Editorial·
Data through Week 8 of the 2026 season
74 of 83 Reasons favor Detroit. The Lions’ passing game has been the NFL’s best under pressure, their offense spends more of its plays in the red zone than almost any other, and their pass rush meets a Miami line that has allowed pressure more often than any team in the league. Miami has fewer counters, but they are specific: its run game against a standard pass rush, its 3rd-down offense, and its downfield passing against a Detroit defense that has given up chunk plays. The market has Detroit as a 7-point road favorite. Both sides are shown below with sample, ranking and source context.
Inside Edge’s Week 9 view: Detroit arrives at 5-2 with the stronger statistical profile: 74 of the game’s 83 Reasons favor the Lions, led by an 83.7 passer rating when their quarterback is under pressure (best in the NFL) against a Dolphins defense that has allowed a 96.9 rating in the same spot (worst). Miami, at 1-6, has its clearest counterarguments on offense: a run game that has been successful on 57% of its carries against a base rush, and a 3rd-down unit that has converted 43% of the time. The current line has Detroit -7 with a total of 50, shown later in this report as external market context, not an Inside Edge forecast.
| Matchup | Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins |
| Competition | NFL, Week 9 |
| Kickoff | Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ET (CBS) |
| Venue | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Line | Detroit -7 · Total 50 |
| Analysis status | Pregame; subject to change |
| Data through | Week 8, 2026 NFL regular season |
What Stood Out Last Week
Week 8
- Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 153 yards on 23 carries (6.7 per carry), 4th-best of 30 qualified NFL running backs in Week 8.
- The ground game carried the day: Detroit ran successful plays on 57% of its rush attempts, best in the NFL in Week 8, and on 76% of them in the 2nd half, also best.
- The defense allowed scores on just 2 of 12 opponent drives (17%), tied for 4th-best in the NFL in Week 8.
- The deep passing game went quiet: Jared Goff completed passes of 20+ yards on just 1 of his 25 attempts, tied for 3rd-worst of 28 qualified QBs in Week 8.
- Dolphins wide receivers caught 17 passes, tied for 2nd-most in the NFL in Week 8, on 21 targets (tied for 5th-most).
- Greg Dulcich was targeted 6 times, tied for 8th-most among NFL tight ends in Week 8.
- The defense held yards after the catch to 70, 5th-fewest in the NFL in Week 8.
- Drives stalled early: Miami went three and out on 40% of its drives, worst in the NFL in Week 8, and Malik Willis was sacked 5 times in the 1st half, the most of any NFL quarterback.
Spot the Angle
Real Remarkable™ insights on Lions at Dolphins. Pick an answer to reveal the betting spin.
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Player Prop
Question 1 of 5
Which receiver has a receiving-yards line of 76.5 this week and has cleared it in just 1 of his last 5 games?
He has been targeted 8 or more times in every game this season.
The betting spin
Answer: Amon-Ra St. Brown. He’s topped 76.5 receiving yards in 2 of 7 games this season, and Inside Edge’s insight leans Under at 56%. The volume is real, though: he’s averaging 7.6 catches per game, and the Dolphins have allowed more than 76.5 receiving yards to an opposing wide receiver in 2 of their last 3 games.
See the prop angles ↓ -
Hot Streak
Question 2 of 5
Which running back has a carries line of 16.5 this week and has topped it in each of his last 3 games?
He’s averaging 86.7 rushing yards per game over his last 3 games.
The betting spin
Answer: Ollie Gordon. He’s over 16.5 carries in 4 of his last 5 games, and Inside Edge’s insight leans Over at 57%. The other side: Detroit has allowed just 46.3 rushing yards per game to running backs over its last 3 games. Small sample: the prop data counts his season as 4 of 4 games on one measure and 4 of 6 on another.
See the prop angles ↓ -
Player Prop
Question 3 of 5
Which receiver has a receptions line of 4.5 this week and has beaten it in 6 of 7 games this season?
He’s been targeted 6 or more times in 4 of his last 5 games.
The betting spin
Answer: Malik Washington. He’s averaging 4.8 catches per game over his last 5, and Inside Edge’s insight leans Over at 56%. Detroit has allowed 27.0 completions per game this season and more than 41.5 receiving yards to an opposing wide receiver in every game.
See the prop angles ↓ -
Key Insight
Question 4 of 5
Lions quarterbacks have an 83.7 passer rating when under pressure this season, best in the NFL. What passer rating has Miami’s defense allowed when the opposing quarterback is under pressure?
It ranks worst in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: 96.9, worst in the NFL. It’s the largest rank gap of any Reason in this game. Even when Miami gets home, Detroit has kept producing, and the wider picture matches: since Week 5, Lions quarterbacks have a 112.7 passer rating (3rd-best) against a Dolphins defense that has allowed 130.9 (worst).
See the edge ↓ -
Matchup Watch
Question 5 of 5
Miami has been successful on 57% of its rush attempts against a base rush this season, 9th-best in the NFL. What success rate has Detroit allowed on rush attempts against a base rush?
It ranks worst in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: 79%, worst in the NFL. It’s the strongest season-long Reason in Miami’s favor. The counterweight: Detroit has allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in each of its last 3 games, and just 46.3 rushing yards per game to running backs over that span.
See the edge ↓
Key Findings
At a glance| Topic | Detroit | Miami | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing under pressure | 83.7 rating, best | 96.9 allowed, worst | Detroit |
| Red-zone play share | 20% of plays, 2nd-best | 21% allowed, T-worst | Detroit |
| QB pressure | 27% generated, T-8th-best | 34% allowed, worst | Detroit |
| Runs vs. a base rush | 79% success allowed, worst | 57% success, 9th-best | Miami |
| 3rd-down conversions | 46% allowed, T-5th-worst | 43%, T-7th-best | Miami |
| 20+ yard passes | 11% of attempts allowed, T-2nd-worst | 9% of attempts, T-10th-best | Miami |
All six rows use 2026 regular-season data through Week 8. Rankings are among all 32 NFL teams. Of the 83 Inside Edge Reasons generated for this game, 74 favor Detroit and 9 favor Miami.
Where Detroit Has the Edge
3 verified pairsDetroit has stayed efficient under pressure, and Miami hasn’t made pressure count
DETLions quarterbacks have an 83.7 passer rating when under pressure this season.
MIAThe Dolphins have allowed a 96.9 passer rating when the opposing quarterback was under pressure this season.
Detroit: best in the NFL · Miami: worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is the largest rank gap of any Reason in the game. It fits a broader pattern: Lions quarterbacks have a 107.2 passer rating against a base front (3rd-best) and Miami has allowed 113.9 against one (worst), and since Week 5 Detroit’s passer rating is 112.7 (3rd-best) against a Dolphins defense that has allowed 130.9 (worst). The counterweight: Detroit’s deep game was quiet in Week 8, when Jared Goff completed just 1 pass of 20+ yards on 25 attempts and the Lions were sacked on 14% of their pass attempts (4th-worst).
Detroit Lions quarterbacks have an 83.7 passer rating when under pressure in 2026, best in the NFL, while the Miami Dolphins have allowed a 96.9 passer rating when the opposing quarterback is under pressure, worst in the NFL.
Data note
Both sides measure passer rating on plays where the quarterback was pressured (offense) and passer rating allowed on those plays (defense). 2026 regular season. The base-front figures come from FTN Data Reasons and the Week 8 figures from Remarkable™ Last Week notes. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
The Lions live in the red zone, and Miami keeps letting opponents in
DETThe Lions have run 20% of their offensive plays in the red zone this season.
MIAThe Dolphins have allowed opponents to run 21% of their plays in the red zone this season.
Detroit: 2nd-best in the NFL · Miami: T-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: Detroit has turned those trips into points, scoring 23.4 points per game in the red zone (2nd-best), while Miami has allowed 21.6 (3rd-worst). Once there, the Dolphins have allowed an 82% completion rate (worst in the NFL) and 13 receiving touchdowns (tied for 2nd-most) against a Lions offense that throws on 53% of its red-zone plays (tied for 7th-highest). The caution: Detroit ran just 8% of its plays in the red zone in Week 8, 5th-worst in the NFL.
The Detroit Lions have run 20% of their offensive plays in the red zone in 2026, 2nd-best in the NFL, and the Miami Dolphins have allowed opponents to run 21% of their plays there, tied for worst.
Data note
Both sides measure the share of offensive plays run inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. 2026 regular season. The red-zone points, completion-rate and touchdown figures come from related Reasons for this game; the Week 8 figure from a Remarkable™ Last Week note. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Detroit’s pass rush meets the line that has allowed the most pressure in the NFL
DETThe Lions have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 27% of passing plays this season.
MIAThe Dolphins have allowed pressure on 34% of their pass attempts this season.
Detroit: T-8th-best in the NFL · Miami: worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: Detroit has 24 sacks this season (3rd-most) and at least one sack in each of its last 12 games, while Miami quarterbacks have been sacked 21 times (tied for 10th-most). Malik Willis was sacked 5 times in the 1st half alone in Week 8. On play-action passes, the Lions have pressured the quarterback on 41% of attempts (3rd-best) and Dolphins quarterbacks have a 45.3 passer rating (worst). The counterweight: since Week 5, Miami’s quarterbacks have a 158.3 passer rating against a heavy rush (best in the NFL), so how Detroit gets its pressure matters.
The Detroit Lions have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 27% of passing plays in 2026, tied for 8th-best in the NFL, while the Miami Dolphins have allowed pressure on 34% of their pass attempts, worst in the NFL.
Data note
Both sides measure pressure rate per dropback (generated by the defense, allowed by the offense). 2026 regular season. The play-action and heavy-rush figures come from FTN Data Reasons (the heavy-rush figure covers the last four weeks), the sack streak from a Remarkable™ streak note, and the Willis figure from a Last Week note. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data; FTN = FTN Data).
Where Miami Has the Edge
3 verified pairsMiami’s run game meets Detroit’s softest spot on defense
MIAThe Dolphins have been successful on 57% of their rush attempts against a base rush this season.
DETThe Lions have allowed a 79% success rate on rush attempts with a base rush this season.
Miami: 9th-best in the NFL · Detroit: worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is the largest rank gap of any season-long Reason that favors Miami. The explosive runs line up too: Dolphins running backs have gained 10+ yards on 10% of their 147 carries (tied for 8th-best), and Detroit has allowed 10+ yards on 12% of carries to running backs (tied for 4th-worst). Ollie Gordon has topped 16.5 carries in each of his last 3 games. It cuts both ways: Detroit has allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in each of its last 3 games, and since Week 5 the Lions have allowed 3.7 yards per carry (tied for 8th-best) while Miami has averaged 3.7 (9th-worst).
The Miami Dolphins have been successful on 57% of their rush attempts against a base rush in 2026, 9th-best in the NFL, and the Detroit Lions have allowed a 79% success rate on those runs, worst in the NFL.
Data note
A "base rush" means the defense sent its standard number of pass rushers, as charted by FTN Data; here it is applied to run plays. Both sides measure successful rush rate. 2026 regular season; the Reasons don’t list the number of qualifying runs, so the sample size isn’t shown. The yards-per-carry figures cover the last four weeks, the 10+ yard figures come from SR Reasons, and the 100-yard streak from a Remarkable™ streak note. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN = FTN Data).
Miami has moved the chains on 3rd down, and Detroit hasn’t gotten off the field
MIAThe Dolphins have converted 43% of their 3rd downs this season.
DETThe Lions have allowed a 46% 3rd-down conversion rate this season.
Miami: T-7th-best in the NFL · Detroit: T-5th-worst.
Why it matters: It’s one of the few areas where a 1-6 team ranks in the top quarter of the league. The recent trend points the other way, though: since Week 5, Detroit has forced three-and-outs on 32% of opponent drives (2nd-best) and Miami has gone three and out on 31% of its drives (5th-worst). In Week 8, the Dolphins went three and out on 40% of their drives, worst in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins have converted 43% of their 3rd downs in 2026, tied for 7th-best in the NFL, while the Detroit Lions have allowed a 46% 3rd-down conversion rate, tied for 5th-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure 3rd-down conversion rate. 2026 regular season. The three-and-out figures cover the last four weeks (since Week 5), and the Week 8 figure comes from a Remarkable™ Last Week note. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Detroit’s secondary has given up chunk plays, and Miami’s passing game can find them
MIAThe Dolphins have thrown for 20+ yards on 9% of their pass attempts this season.
DETThe Lions have allowed 20+ yards on 11% of opponent pass attempts this season.
Miami: T-10th-best in the NFL · Detroit: T-2nd-worst.
Why it matters: Detroit has allowed 298.7 passing yards per game this season and more than 208.5 in every game, which is why Inside Edge’s insight on Malik Willis’s 208.5-yard line leans Over. Since Week 5, Miami has been successful on 57% of its pass attempts in opponent territory (4th-best). The catch: this one is a mirror image. Detroit has also thrown for 20+ yards on 9% of its attempts (tied for 10th-best), and Miami has allowed 20+ yards on 11% (tied for 2nd-worst).
The Miami Dolphins have thrown for 20 or more yards on 9% of their pass attempts in 2026, tied for 10th-best in the NFL, and the Detroit Lions have allowed 20+ yard completions on 11% of opponent attempts, tied for 2nd-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure the share of pass attempts that gained 20+ yards. 2026 regular season. The same pair appears with the teams reversed in this game’s Reasons, so neither side has a clear advantage on this stat alone. The passing-yards figures come from this game’s prop insights; the opponent-territory figure covers the last four weeks. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Blazing Performers
1 per teamWho’s hottest heading into Sunday, per Remarkable™. Read the clue, guess, then tap to reveal.
DetroitThis quarterback has thrown at least one touchdown pass in each of his last 31 games, the longest active streak in the NFL.
MiamiThis tight end has scored 6+ fantasy points in each of his last 4 games and has been targeted 5+ times in each of his last 3.
Blazing Performers presented by LineTerminal.
Market Context
External, secondaryThe current line has Detroit as a 7-point road favorite with a game total of 50. No earlier lines were available for this report, so line movement isn’t shown. These are displayed as external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast.
The Reasons count points the same way as the spread, 74 to 9 in Detroit’s favor. On scoring, the Lions have averaged 29.0 points per game this season (3rd-best in the NFL) and scored on 49% of their drives (3rd-best), while the Dolphins have allowed 25.9 points per game (tied for 8th-worst) and scores on 46% of opponent drives (tied for worst). Miami’s offense has scored 8.6 first-half points per game (8th-worst). These are statistical factors, not a read on the price; Inside Edge does not state that any line is mispriced.
Not financial or betting advice. Inside Edge does not set, accept or influence sportsbook prices. Wager only through licensed, regulated platforms in your jurisdiction. Line source: Inside Edge game data, Nov 4, 2026.
Player Prop Angles
8 insights| Player | Market | Insight lean | Rating | Key trend | Save |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Dulcich | Receptions, 3.5 | Over · 63% | ★★★★★ | 4.3 catches per game, last 3 | |
| Malik Willis | Passing yards, 208.5 | Over · 61% | ★★★★★ | Lions allowed Over in all 7 games | |
| Sam LaPorta | Receptions, 3.5 | Over · 60% | ★★★★★ | 5+ targets in 6 of 7 games | |
| Ollie Gordon | Receptions, 1.5 | Under · 59% | ★★★★★ | 1.0 catch per game this season | |
| Greg Dulcich | Receiving yards, 37.5 | Over · 58% | ★★★★★ | Lions allowed Over to a TE in 6 of 7 | |
| Ollie Gordon | Carries, 16.5 | Over · 57% | ★★★★☆ | Over in each of his last 3 games | |
| Malik Washington | Receptions, 4.5 | Over · 56% | ★★★★☆ | Over in 6 of 7 games | |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Receiving yards, 76.5 | Under · 56% | ★★★★☆ | Over in 1 of his last 5 games |
Line source: Remarkable™ consensus line. Confidence is the Inside Edge confidence in the Over (Under = 100 minus Over). Small samples: Ollie Gordon’s prop records cover 4 to 6 games and Greg Dulcich’s 6 games.
Line source: Remarkable™ consensus line. Sample: 2026 regular season and last 3/5 games played. Neutral insights (for example, St. Brown’s receptions line of 6.5 and Jared Goff’s passing-yards line of 261.5) are not leans and aren’t shown.
How our Week 8 prop insights did
Graded Week 8 results weren’t available when this page was built. They’ll appear here once they’re published.
Methodology
How this is calculatedHow does Inside Edge decide which team "has the edge" on a given stat?
Each comparison in this report pairs one team’s strength with the opponent’s matching weakness, ranked among all 32 teams (or among qualified players where a player is named). Edges are ordered by the size of the rank gap and by how directly the two stats measure the same thing. Inside Edge does not publish a weighted "Strong Edge / Edge / Lean" score; that scoring system is in development.
Why does this page mostly use 2026 season data?
Current-season splits reflect this year’s rosters and schemes. Where a shorter window (since Week 5, the last four weeks of games) adds useful context, the row or data note says so.
How are prop insights and confidence calculated?
Each prop insight compares the posted line to the player’s recent and season results and to what the opposing defense has allowed. The confidence figure is Inside Edge’s confidence in the Over on a 0 to 100 scale; the star rating reflects how far that figure sits from 50. Every insight is graded against the final box score on a weekly results page.
What’s the data source and refresh schedule?
Team, player and matchup statistics come from Remarkable™, Inside Edge’s proprietary sports data engine, using Sportradar and FTN Data feeds. Market prices come from Inside Edge game data. Game pages refresh on a weekly cadence during the season.
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Frequently Asked Questions
6 questionsWhich team has the stronger statistical matchup profile?
Detroit holds the broader statistical edge: 74 of the game’s 83 Inside Edge Reasons favor the Lions, led by an 83.7 passer rating when their quarterback is under pressure (best in the NFL) against a Miami defense that has allowed a 96.9 rating when the quarterback is under pressure (worst). The Dolphins’ clearest counterweights are their run game against a base rush and their 3rd-down offense. This reflects statistical comparison, not a forecast of the outcome.
What is the market price for Lions at Dolphins?
The current line has Detroit as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 50 (Inside Edge game data, Nov 4, 2026). These are external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast, and they may change before kickoff.
What is the Dolphins’ strongest counterargument?
Miami has been successful on 57% of its rush attempts against a base rush this season, 9th-best in the NFL, and Detroit has allowed a 79% success rate on rush attempts against a base rush, worst in the NFL. The Dolphins have also converted 43% of their 3rd downs (tied for 7th-best) against a Detroit defense that has allowed 46% (tied for 5th-worst).
Who are the Blazing Performers for this game?
Jared Goff has thrown at least one touchdown pass in each of his last 31 games, the longest active streak in the NFL. Greg Dulcich has 6 or more fantasy points in each of his last 4 games.
How did Inside Edge’s most recent prop insights do?
Graded Week 8 results weren’t available when this page was built. They’ll appear on this page once they’re published.
Are these betting picks or financial advice?
No. This page presents descriptive, sourced statistical analysis. It is not financial or betting advice, and it does not guarantee any outcome. Market pricing is shown for context only; Inside Edge does not set or influence it.