Dolphins at Colts: Matchup Edges, Statistical Evidence and Market Context
Miami Dolphins (1–7) at Indianapolis Colts (2–7)·
NFL Week 10·
Kickoff Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ET
Updated Nov 10, 2026, with Week 10 Reasons·
By Inside Edge Editorial·
Data through Week 9 of the 2026 season
26 of 48 Reasons favor Indianapolis, a narrow split. The Colts’ offense has rarely gone three-and-out, against the Miami defense that forces them least often in the NFL, and the Colts’ defense has shut down passes against a stacked front, where Miami’s offense ranks last. Miami’s counters are close behind: a run game that hits up the middle against a Colts defense tied for worst there, a stingy 3rd-and-long defense and a pass rush that has heated up since Week 6. The market has Indianapolis as a 2.5-point home favorite. Both sides are shown below with sample, ranking and source context.
Inside Edge’s Week 10 view: Indianapolis enters Sunday with a slight statistical edge: 26 of the game’s 48 Reasons favor the Colts, led by an offense that has gone three-and-out on just 14% of its drives (tied for 3rd-best in the NFL) against a Miami defense that has forced three-and-outs on 12% (worst). Miami’s answer is the ground game: the Dolphins have run on 48% of their plays, tied for 2nd-highest, and the Colts have allowed 5.2 yards per carry, tied for 2nd-worst. Both teams lost at home in Week 9. The current line has Indianapolis -2.5 with a total of 40.5, shown later in this report as external market context, not an Inside Edge forecast.
| Matchup | Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts |
| Competition | NFL, Week 10 |
| Kickoff | Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ET · CBS |
| Venue | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis |
| Records | Miami 1–7 · Indianapolis 2–7 |
| Line | Indianapolis -2.5 · Total 40.5 |
| Analysis status | Pregame; subject to change |
| Data through | Week 9, 2026 NFL regular season |
What Stood Out Last Week
Week 9
- Dolphins backs averaged 5.8 yards per touch (117 yards on 20 touches), 4th-best in the NFL, with 63 receiving yards (tied for 2nd-most); Kaytron Allen’s 46 receiving yards tied for 4th-most among NFL running backs.
- The pass rush got home: Miami hit opposing quarterbacks on 31% of pass attempts, 5th-best in the NFL in Week 9.
- The run defense won at the line: tackles for loss on 5 of 26 rushes (19%), 5th-best, and just 1.2 yards after contact allowed per carry (also 5th-best).
- The passing game stalled: Malik Willis posted a 50.1 passer rating, 3rd-worst of 30 qualified QBs, and completed 52% of his passes (2nd-worst).
- The run game was among the NFL’s most efficient: successful plays on 56% of rush attempts (2nd-best) and on 77% of rush attempts with a player in motion (best).
- Colts backs averaged 2.5 yards after contact per carry (19 carries), tied for 4th-best, and Jonathan Taylor’s 5 receptions tied for 2nd-most among NFL running backs.
- Colts receivers averaged 7.9 yards after the catch (79 on 10 receptions), 2nd-best in the NFL, and the defense hurried quarterbacks on 27% of pass attempts (5th-best).
- The pass defense gave up big plays: 329 passing yards (3rd-most in Week 9) and 7 receptions of 20+ yards to wide receivers (tied for most).
Spot the Angle
Real Remarkable™ insights on Dolphins at Colts. Pick an answer to reveal the betting spin.
- Player Prop
Question 1 of 3
Which running back is averaging 72.9 rushing yards per game this season, and has a Rushing Yards prop of 63.5 yards this week on PrizePicks?
He has gone Over this rushing line in 6 of 9 games this season.
The betting spin
Answer: Jonathan Taylor. Jonathan Taylor is averaging 72.9 rushing yards per game this season, and his PrizePicks Rushing Yards line this week is 63.5. Others in this question: Jaylen Warren (PIT): line 61.5, averaging 88.0 this season; Bijan Robinson (ATL): line 82.5, averaging 97.8 this season. Lines can move before kickoff.
See the prop angles ↓ - Matchup Angle
Question 2 of 3
Since Week 6, which defense ranks 5th-best in the NFL in pressure rate generated, and faces the Colts this week, whose offense ranks 3rd-worst in pressure rate allowed?
It ranks 3rd-worst in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: the Dolphins. The Dolphins have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 32% of passing plays since Week 6. The Colts have allowed pressure on 34% of pass attempts since Week 6. Dolphins: 5th-best in the NFL · Colts: 3rd-worst in the NFL.
See the edge ↓ - Hot Streak
Question 3 of 3
Which of these defenses has the longest active streak of games allowing less than 300 passing yards?
The run reaches back into the 2025 season; this team has played 8 games this year.
The betting spin
Answer: the Dolphins. The Dolphins have allowed less than 300 passing yards in each of their last 9 games. Active streaks (as of Nov 10): Dolphins 9 · Giants 6 · Browns 5 games.
See the edge ↓
Key Findings
At a glance| Topic | Miami | Indianapolis | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Three-and-out rate | 12% forced, worst | 14% of drives, T-3rd-best | Indianapolis |
| Passing vs. a stacked front | 27% successful, worst | 38% allowed, 3rd-best | Indianapolis |
| Average drive start | 34.2-yard line allowed, 2nd-worst | 29.8-yard line, 8th-best | Indianapolis |
| Runs up the middle | 4.4 YPC, T-7th-best | 5.0 allowed, T-worst | Miami |
| 3rd-and-long conversions | 17% allowed, T-4th-best | 19% converted, 6th-worst | Miami |
| QB pressure since Week 6 | 32% pressured, 5th-best | 34% allowed, 3rd-worst | Miami |
Rows use 2026 regular-season data through Week 9, except QB pressure, which covers games since Week 6 (the previous four weeks). Rankings are among all 32 NFL teams. Of the 48 Inside Edge Reasons generated for this game, 26 favor Indianapolis and 22 favor Miami.
Where Indianapolis Has the Edge
3 verified pairsIndianapolis has rarely gone three-and-out, and Miami’s defense has forced them less than anyone
INDThe Colts have gone three-and-out on 14% of their drives this season.
MIAThe Dolphins have forced three-and-outs on 12% of opponent drives this season.
Indianapolis: T-3rd-best in the NFL · Miami: worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is tied for the largest rank gap of any Reason in the game. Staying on the field suits a Colts offense whose run game has been efficient: since Week 6, Indianapolis has been successful on 47% of its rush attempts (T-7th-best) against a Miami defense that has allowed a 46% success rate (T-5th-worst). The counterpoint is Week 9, when the Colts went three-and-out on 36% of their drives, 2nd-worst in the NFL; Miami didn’t force a single three-and-out in its Week 9 game.
Indianapolis has gone three-and-out on 14% of its drives in 2026, tied for 3rd-best in the NFL, while Miami’s defense has forced three-and-outs on 12% of opponent drives, worst in the NFL.
Data note
Both sides measure the same stat: three-and-out rate on all drives (offense gone, defense forced). 2026 regular season through Week 9. The rush success figures cover games since Week 6 (the previous four weeks), and the Week 9 figures come from Remarkable™ Last Week notes. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Against a stacked front, Miami’s passing game ranks last, and Indianapolis’s defense ranks near the top
INDThe Colts have allowed a 38% success rate on pass attempts when playing a stacked front this season.
MIAThe Dolphins have been successful on 27% of pass attempts against a stacked front this season.
Indianapolis: 3rd-best in the NFL · Miami: worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: A stacked front puts extra defenders near the line of scrimmage, usually to stop the run, and Miami hasn’t made defenses pay for it through the air. Across all plays against a stacked front, the Dolphins have been successful 33% of the time (T-2nd-worst) and the Colts have allowed 36% (2nd-best). Dolphins quarterbacks have a 60.8 passer rating against a stacked front (3rd-worst), and the Colts have pressured on 33% of those dropbacks (T-9th-best). Malik Willis posted a 50.1 passer rating in Week 9, 3rd-worst of 30 qualified QBs.
Indianapolis has allowed a 38% success rate on pass attempts with a stacked front in 2026, 3rd-best in the NFL, while Miami has been successful on 27% of its pass attempts against a stacked front, worst in the NFL.
Data note
"Stacked front" is FTN Data’s charting of plays with extra defenders in the box. Both sides measure pass success rate (offense achieved, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9. The passer-rating and pressure pair measures related but different stats. The Willis figure comes from a Remarkable™ Last Week note. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN = FTN Data).
Indianapolis has started drives with better field position, and Miami has given it away
INDThe Colts’ drives have started at their own 29.8-yard line on average this season.
MIAThe Dolphins have allowed opponents an average drive start at their own 34.2-yard line this season.
Indianapolis: 8th-best in the NFL · Miami: 2nd-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: Field position counts for more between two offenses that have struggled to finish: since Week 6, each team has scored just 4 red-zone touchdowns (T-4th-fewest). Miami’s Week 9 showed the problem from both sides: the Dolphins started drives at their own 23.4 on average (5th-worst) and were flagged 11 times (4th-most). The counterpoint: the Colts started 6 drives inside their own 20 in Week 9, tied for most in the NFL.
Indianapolis has started its drives at its own 29.8-yard line on average in 2026, 8th-best in the NFL, while Miami has allowed opponents an average drive start at the 34.2-yard line, 2nd-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure the same stat: average drive start, counted from the offense’s own goal line (offense started, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9. The red-zone figures cover games since Week 6, and the Week 9 figures come from Remarkable™ Last Week notes. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Where Miami Has the Edge
3 verified pairsMiami’s backs have hit runs up the middle, where Indianapolis has been the NFL’s softest
MIADolphins running backs have averaged 4.4 yards per carry on runs up the middle this season.
INDThe Colts have allowed 5.0 yards per carry on runs up the middle this season.
Miami: T-7th-best in the NFL · Indianapolis: T-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: Miami leans on the run, rushing on 48% of its plays this season (T-2nd-highest), and Indianapolis has allowed 5.2 yards per carry overall (T-2nd-worst). The Colts gave up 180 rushing yards in Week 9 (2nd-most in the NFL) and have allowed 143.3 rushing yards per game to running backs over their last 3 games. The counterpoint: Dolphins backs were stuffed on 29% of their Week 9 carries (4th-worst).
Miami’s running backs have averaged 4.4 yards per carry on runs up the middle in 2026, tied for 7th-best in the NFL, and Indianapolis has allowed 5.0 yards per carry on those runs, tied for worst.
Data note
Both sides measure yards per carry on runs up the middle; Miami’s figure covers its running backs’ carries and Indianapolis’s figure all rushes it has allowed. Direction is as charted in the Sportradar feed. 2026 regular season through Week 9. The rush-rate and overall yards-per-carry pair measures related but different stats. The 143.3 figure comes from this week’s prop insights, and the Week 9 figures from Remarkable™ Last Week notes. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
On 3rd and long, Miami’s defense has gotten off the field, and Indianapolis has rarely converted
MIAThe Dolphins have allowed a 17% conversion rate on 3rd and long this season.
INDThe Colts have converted 19% of their 3rd-and-long plays this season.
Miami: T-4th-best in the NFL · Indianapolis: 6th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: Week 9 made the point: the Colts converted 23% of their 3rd downs (5th-worst) and didn’t convert any of their 20 late-down plays with more than 10 yards to go (T-worst). Miami’s pass rush has also been effective against tight coverage: the Dolphins have pressured on 32% of those dropbacks this season (4th-best), and Colts quarterbacks have a 12.5 passer rating against tight coverage (6th-worst). The counterpoint: Indianapolis has rarely stalled overall, going three-and-out on just 14% of its drives.
Miami’s defense has allowed a 17% conversion rate on 3rd and long in 2026, tied for 4th-best in the NFL, while Indianapolis has converted 19% of its 3rd-and-long plays, 6th-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure the same stat: 3rd-down conversion rate on 3rd and long (offense converted, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9. The tight-coverage pair, charted by FTN Data, measures related but different stats (pressure rate and passer rating). The Week 9 figures come from Remarkable™ Last Week notes. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data / FTN = FTN Data).
Since Week 6, Miami’s pass rush has heated up against a Colts offense that has allowed pressure often
MIAThe Dolphins have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 32% of passing plays since Week 6.
INDThe Colts have allowed pressure on 34% of pass attempts since Week 6.
Miami: 5th-best in the NFL · Indianapolis: 3rd-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: Pressure has hurt Indianapolis over that span: Colts quarterbacks have a 56.8 passer rating against a base rush (2nd-worst), where Miami pressures on 31% of dropbacks (4th-best), and have thrown for 5.1 yards per attempt up the middle (5th-worst) against a Dolphins defense that has allowed 5.0 (2nd-best). Miami hit opposing quarterbacks on 31% of pass attempts in Week 9 (5th-best). It cuts both ways: the Colts have pressured on 30% of passing plays since Week 6 (T-6th-best), and the Dolphins have allowed pressure on 30% (T-5th-worst).
Since Week 6, Miami’s defense has pressured opposing quarterbacks on 32% of passing plays, 5th-best in the NFL, while Indianapolis has allowed pressure on 34% of its pass attempts, 3rd-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure the same stat: QB pressure rate (defense pressured, offense allowed). This edge uses games since Week 6 (the previous four weeks), in which Miami played 3 games; no 2026-season pressure Reason was generated for this game. The base-rush pair (FTN Data) and the middle-of-the-field pair cover the same window; the base-rush pair measures related but different stats (pressure rate and passer rating). Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data / FTN = FTN Data).
Blazing Performers
1 per teamWho’s hottest heading into Sunday, per Remarkable™. Read the clue, guess, then tap to reveal.
MiamiThis running back is averaging 83.0 rushing yards per game over his last 5 games, nearly 17 more than his season average.
IndianapolisThis offense has rushed for 100 or more yards in each of its last 4 games, and its running backs have averaged 5.2 yards per carry on runs to the right since Week 6.
Blazing Performers presented by LineTerminal.
Market Context
External, secondaryThe current line has Indianapolis as a 2.5-point home favorite with a game total of 40.5. Line movement isn’t shown. These are displayed as external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast.
The Reasons count is close, 26 to 22 in Indianapolis’s favor. On first-half scoring since Week 6, Miami has allowed 5.3 points per game (best in the NFL) and Indianapolis has scored 7.5 (7th-worst). On betting trends, Miami is 3–4 against the spread this season (tied for 9th-worst) and 2–2 on the road, and since the start of the 2025 season, games involving the Dolphins have gone Over in 64% of their road games (7–4–1, tied for 5th-most). These are statistical factors, not a read on the price; Inside Edge does not state that any line is mispriced.
Not financial or betting advice. Inside Edge does not set, accept or influence sportsbook prices. Wager only through licensed, regulated platforms in your jurisdiction. Line source: Inside Edge game data, Nov 10, 2026.
Player Prop Angles
5 insights| Player | Market | Insight lean | Rating | Key trend | Save |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | Rushing yards, 26.5 | Under · 63% | ★★★★★ | 15.3 per game, last 3 | |
| Malik Willis | Pass completions, 16.5 | Under · 62% | ★★★★★ | Over 16.5 in just 2 of 8 games | |
| Greg Dulcich | Receiving yards, 30.5 | Over · 58% | ★★★★★ | Over 30.5 in 4 of his last 5 | |
| Ollie Gordon | Receiving yards, 9.5 | Under · 58% | ★★★★★ | Under 9.5 in each of his last 5 | |
| Ollie Gordon | Rushing yards, 73.5 | Over · 56% | ★★★★ | 83.0 per game, last 5 |
Line source: PrizePicks line via Remarkable™. Confidence is the Inside Edge confidence in the Over (Under = 100 minus Over). Sample: 2026 regular season and last 3/5 games played. Ollie Gordon and Greg Dulcich have each played 7 of Miami’s 8 games.
Line source: PrizePicks line via Remarkable™. This week’s prop insights include no Colts quarterback lines. Tyler Warren has played 7 of Indianapolis’s 9 games.
Methodology
How this is calculatedHow does Inside Edge decide which team "has the edge" on a given stat?
Each comparison in this report pairs one team’s strength with the opponent’s matching weakness, ranked among all 32 teams (or among qualified players where a player is named). Edges are ordered by the size of the rank gap and by how directly the two stats measure the same thing. Inside Edge does not publish a weighted "Strong Edge / Edge / Lean" score; that scoring system is in development.
Why does this page mostly use 2026 season data?
Current-season splits reflect this year’s rosters and schemes. Where a shorter window (since Week 6, the last four weeks of games) adds useful context, the row or data note says so. Betting trends that reach back to 2025 are labeled.
How are prop insights and confidence calculated?
Each prop insight compares the posted line to the player’s recent and season results and to what the opposing defense has allowed. The confidence figure is Inside Edge’s confidence in the Over on a 0 to 100 scale; the star rating reflects how far that figure sits from 50.
What’s the data source and refresh schedule?
Team, player and matchup statistics come from Remarkable™, Inside Edge’s proprietary sports data engine, using Sportradar and FTN Data feeds. The spread and total come from Inside Edge game data; prop lines are PrizePicks lines via Remarkable™. Game pages refresh on a weekly cadence during the season.
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Frequently Asked Questions
5 questionsWhich team has the stronger statistical matchup profile in Dolphins at Colts?
Indianapolis holds a narrow statistical edge: 26 of the 48 Inside Edge Reasons for this game favor the Colts, led by an offense that has gone three-and-out on 14% of its drives this season (tied for 3rd-best in the NFL) against a Miami defense that has forced three-and-outs on 12% (worst), and a defense that has allowed a 38% success rate on pass attempts with a stacked front (3rd-best) against a Dolphins offense that has been successful on 27% of those passes (worst). Miami’s clearest counters are its running backs’ 4.4 yards per carry up the middle against a Colts defense that has allowed 5.0 there (tied for worst), a defense that has allowed a 17% conversion rate on 3rd and long (tied for 4th-best), and a pass rush that has pressured quarterbacks on 32% of passing plays since Week 6 (5th-best). This reflects statistical comparison, not a forecast of the outcome.
What is the market price for Dolphins at Colts?
The current line has Indianapolis as a 2.5-point home favorite with a total of 40.5 (Inside Edge game data, Nov 10, 2026). These are external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast, and they may change before kickoff.
What is Miami’s strongest counterargument?
Miami’s running backs have averaged 4.4 yards per carry on runs up the middle this season, tied for 7th-best in the NFL, and Indianapolis has allowed 5.0 yards per carry on those runs, tied for worst. The Dolphins have run the ball on 48% of their plays (tied for 2nd-highest), and the Colts have allowed 5.2 yards per carry overall (tied for 2nd-worst). Since Week 6, Miami’s defense has also pressured opposing quarterbacks on 32% of passing plays (5th-best) against a Colts offense that has allowed pressure on 34% (3rd-worst).
Who are the Blazing Performers for Dolphins at Colts?
Ollie Gordon is averaging 83.0 rushing yards per game over his last 5 games and 75.7 over his last 3, up from 66.1 for the season. The Colts have rushed for 100 or more yards in each of their last 4 games and have been successful on 47% of their rush attempts since Week 6, tied for 7th-best in the NFL.
Are these betting picks or financial advice?
No. This page presents descriptive, sourced statistical analysis. It is not financial or betting advice, and it does not guarantee any outcome. Market pricing is shown for context only; Inside Edge does not set or influence it.