Jaguars at Titans: Matchup Edges, Statistical Evidence and Market Context
Jacksonville Jaguars (6–2) at Tennessee Titans (1–7)·
NFL Week 10·
Kickoff Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ET
Updated Nov 10, 2026, with Week 10 Reasons·
By Inside Edge Editorial·
Data through Week 9 of the 2026 season
83 of 90 Reasons favor Jacksonville. The Jaguars’ defense has been the NFL’s best at keeping opponents off the board in the first half, where Tennessee’s offense ranks last, and Jacksonville’s passing game has been among the league’s most efficient against a standard four-man rush, where the Titans’ defense ranks last. Tennessee’s counters are narrower and mostly on the ground: a run game that has gashed defenses to the right side since Week 6, a run defense that holds up against a base rush, and a heavy pass rush. The market has Jacksonville as a 10.5-point road favorite. Both sides are shown below with sample, ranking and source context.
Inside Edge’s Week 10 view: Jacksonville arrives in Nashville with the stronger statistical profile: 83 of the game’s 90 Reasons favor the Jaguars, led by a defense that has allowed scores on 22% of opponent drives in the first half this season (best in the NFL) against a Tennessee offense that has scored on 24% of its first-half drives (worst). Tennessee, off a Week 9 bye after a 43–36 loss at Cincinnati in Week 8, has its clearest counterarguments in the run game, though several of them come from the 3 games each team has played since Week 6. The current line has Jacksonville -10.5 with a total of 46.5, shown later in this report as external market context, not an Inside Edge forecast.
| Matchup | Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans |
| Competition | NFL, Week 10 |
| Kickoff | Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ET · FOX |
| Venue | Nissan Stadium, Nashville |
| Records | Jacksonville 6–2 · Tennessee 1–7 |
| Line | Jacksonville -10.5 · Total 46.5 |
| Analysis status | Pregame; subject to change |
| Data through | Week 9, 2026 NFL regular season |
What Stood Out Last Week
Week 9
- The pass defense allowed just 55 passing yards, fewest in the NFL in Week 9, and a 23.2 passer rating on 19 attempts (best).
- Trevor Lawrence wasn’t sacked on any of his 26 attempts and was pressured on 4% of plays, lowest of 31 qualified NFL QBs.
- Lawrence threw for 197 yards in the 1st half, 4th-most among NFL QBs, at 13.1 yards per attempt (3rd-best of 28 qualified).
- The run game stalled: Jaguars running backs averaged 2.7 yards per carry (78 yards on 29 carries), tied for 4th-worst in the NFL in Week 9.
- Titans running backs average 5.6 yards per carry to the right side (209 yards on 37 carries) this season, 3rd-best in the NFL.
- Cam Ward has been sharp late: he has completed 73% of his 4th-quarter passes (65 of 89), 4th-best of 34 qualified NFL QBs.
- Titans receivers have caught 6 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season, tied for most in the NFL.
- Drops have hurt: Titans wide receivers have dropped 14 passes this season, most in the NFL, including 8 on 3rd down (also most).
Spot the Angle
Real Remarkable™ insights on Jaguars at Titans. Pick an answer to reveal the betting spin.
- Player Prop
Question 1 of 3
Which running back is averaging 74.4 rushing yards per game this season, and has a Rushing Yards prop of 55.5 yards this week on PrizePicks?
He's averaging 107.3 rushing yards per game over his last 3 games.
The betting spin
Answer: Tony Pollard. Tony Pollard is averaging 74.4 rushing yards per game this season, and his PrizePicks Rushing Yards line this week is 55.5. Others in this question: Jaylen Warren (PIT): line 61.5, averaging 88.0 this season; Chase Brown (CIN): line 43.5, averaging 49.6 this season. Lines can move before kickoff.
See the prop angles ↓ - Matchup Angle
Question 2 of 3
In the first half, which defense ranks best in the NFL in scoring-drive rate allowed, and faces the Titans this week, whose offense ranks worst in scoring-drive rate?
It ranks best in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: the Jaguars. The Jaguars have allowed scores on 22% of opponent drives in the first half this season. The Titans have scored on 24% of their first-half drives this season. Jaguars: best in the NFL · Titans: worst in the NFL.
See the edge ↓ - Key Insight
Question 3 of 3
Which team ranks tied for 7th-worst in the NFL against the spread at home this season, and hosts the Jaguars this week?
It ranks tied for 7th-worst in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: the Titans. The Titans are 1-3 (.250) against the spread (-52.5% ROI) at home this season — T-7th-worst in the NFL.
See the market context ↓
Key Findings
At a glance| Topic | Jacksonville | Tennessee | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| First-half scoring drives | 22% allowed, best | 24% scored, worst | Jacksonville |
| Passing success vs. a base rush | 54% successful, 2nd-best | 54% allowed, worst | Jacksonville |
| Passes to the left side | 8.3 YPA, T-3rd-best | 8.7 allowed, T-worst | Jacksonville |
| Runs to the right side (since Week 6) | 5.9 YPC allowed, T-worst | 7.7 YPC, best | Tennessee |
| Run success vs. a base rush | 33% successful, T-6th-worst | 33% allowed, T-3rd-best | Tennessee |
| Heavy pass rush | 73.8 rating vs. it, 6th-worst | 60% pressure rate, 2nd-best | Tennessee |
Rows use 2026 regular-season data through Week 9, except the runs-to-the-right row, which covers games since Week 6 (3 games for each team). Rankings are among all 32 NFL teams. Of the 90 Inside Edge Reasons generated for this game, 83 favor Jacksonville and 7 favor Tennessee.
Where Jacksonville Has the Edge
3 verified pairsJacksonville’s first-half defense meets the NFL’s least productive first-half offense
JAXThe Jaguars have allowed scores on 22% of opponent drives in the first half this season.
TENThe Titans have scored on 24% of their first-half drives this season.
Jacksonville: best in the NFL · Tennessee: worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is tied for the largest rank gap in the game, and the scoreboard says the same thing: Jacksonville has allowed 5.4 first-half points per game (best) while Tennessee has scored 6.2 (worst). It works at the other end too, with the Jaguars scoring on 47% of their first-half drives (T-4th-best) against a Titans defense that has allowed scores on 55% (2nd-worst). Tennessee has trailed at halftime in all 8 of its games this season, most in the NFL, and Cam Ward has a 57.9 first-half passer rating, 2nd-worst of 26 qualified QBs.
Jacksonville’s defense has allowed scores on 22% of opponent drives in the first half in 2026, best in the NFL, while Tennessee’s offense has scored on 24% of its first-half drives, worst in the NFL.
Data note
Both sides measure the same stat: share of first-half drives ending in a score (offense scored, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9. The halftime and Cam Ward figures come from Remarkable™ 2026 Season notes. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Against a standard rush, Jacksonville’s passing game meets the NFL’s softest pass defense
JAXThe Jaguars have been successful on 54% of pass attempts against a base rush this season.
TENThe Titans have allowed a 54% success rate on pass attempts with a base rush this season.
Jacksonville: 2nd-best in the NFL · Tennessee: worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: A base rush is the defense’s standard number of rushers, with no added blitz, and it’s where Tennessee has been most exposed. Jaguars quarterbacks have a 117.7 passer rating against a base rush (best in the NFL) against a Titans defense that has allowed 101.4 (7th-worst), and Jacksonville has been successful on 53% of passes against a base front (2nd-best) against 54% allowed (2nd-worst). Trevor Lawrence averaged 10.1 yards per attempt against a base rush in Week 9, 4th-best of 28 qualified QBs.
Jacksonville has been successful on 54% of its pass attempts against a base rush in 2026, 2nd-best in the NFL, and Tennessee has allowed a 54% success rate on those plays, worst in the NFL.
Data note
"Base rush" and "base front" are FTN Data charting terms for plays where the defense rushes or aligns its standard number of players. Both sides measure passing success rate (offense achieved, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9. The Week 9 figure comes from a Remarkable™ Last Week note. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN = FTN Data).
Jacksonville has thrown well to the left, the side Tennessee has defended worst
JAXThe Jaguars have thrown for 8.3 yards per attempt on passes to the left side this season.
TENThe Titans have allowed 8.7 yards per dropback on passes to the left this season.
Jacksonville: T-3rd-best in the NFL · Tennessee: T-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: It isn’t only the left side. Jacksonville has thrown for 8.1 yards per attempt to the right (5th-best) against 7.7 allowed (5th-worst), 8.5 overall (2nd-best) against 7.6 allowed (T-3rd-worst), and has gained 20+ yards on 12% of its attempts (T-2nd-best) against a defense that has allowed it on 11% (T-worst). The counterpoint is volume: Lawrence has averaged 18.3 completions per game this season, and the Jaguars ran on 52% of their plays in Week 9 (3rd-highest).
Jacksonville has thrown for 8.3 yards per attempt on passes to the left side in 2026, tied for 3rd-best in the NFL, and Tennessee has allowed 8.7 yards per dropback on those throws, tied for worst.
Data note
Direction is where the pass was thrown, as charted in the Sportradar feed. Both sides measure yards per pass attempt (offense) and per dropback allowed (defense). 2026 regular season through Week 9. The completions figure comes from this week’s prop insights, and the Week 9 run rate from a Remarkable™ Last Week note. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Where Tennessee Has the Edge
3 verified pairsSince Week 6, Tennessee’s runs to the right have been the NFL’s best, against a defense that has struggled there
TENThe Titans have averaged 7.7 yards per carry on rushes to the right side since Week 6.
JAXThe Jaguars have allowed 5.9 yards per carry on rushes to the right since Week 6.
Tennessee: best in the NFL · Jacksonville: T-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is the largest rank gap among the Reasons that favor Tennessee, and it fits a broader run-game trend over the same stretch: the Titans have averaged 5.2 yards per carry on 1st down (T-4th-best) against a Jaguars defense that has allowed 5.8 (worst), and Titans backs have gained 2.2 yards after contact per carry (T-5th-best) against 2.6 allowed (worst). Tony Pollard has averaged 107.3 rushing yards over his last 3 games. The caveat: for the full season, Titans backs have carried to the right just 37 times, 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
Since Week 6 of 2026, Tennessee has averaged 7.7 yards per carry on rushes to the right side, best in the NFL, while Jacksonville has allowed 5.9 yards per carry on those runs, tied for worst.
Data note
Both sides measure the same stat: yards per carry on runs to the right (offense gained, defense allowed). "Since Week 6" covers the last four weeks, in which each team played 3 games, so these are small samples. The season carry count comes from a Remarkable™ 2026 Season note and the Pollard figure from this week’s prop insights. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Tennessee’s run defense holds up against a base rush, where Jacksonville’s ground game has stalled
TENThe Titans have allowed a 33% success rate on rush attempts with a base rush this season.
JAXThe Jaguars have been successful on 33% of rush attempts against a base rush this season.
Tennessee: T-3rd-best in the NFL · Jacksonville: T-6th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is Tennessee’s strongest full-season edge, and Week 9 backed it up: Jaguars running backs averaged 2.7 yards per carry (78 on 29), tied for 4th-worst in the NFL. Volume is the counterweight. Jacksonville has run on 50% of its plays since Week 6 (T-2nd-highest), and over that stretch Tennessee has allowed 5.4 yards per carry overall, worst in the NFL.
Tennessee has allowed a 33% success rate on rush attempts against a base rush in 2026, tied for 3rd-best in the NFL, while Jacksonville has been successful on 33% of its rush attempts against a base rush, tied for 6th-worst.
Data note
"Base rush" is FTN Data’s charting of plays where the defense rushes its standard number of players. Both sides measure rushing success rate (offense achieved, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9; the run-rate and yards-per-carry figures cover the last four weeks and come from a Reason that favors Jacksonville. The Week 9 figure comes from a Remarkable™ Last Week note. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN = FTN Data and SR = Sportradar data).
When Tennessee sends extra rushers, it gets home, and Jacksonville’s quarterbacks have struggled against it
TENThe Titans have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 60% of pass attempts with a heavy rush this season.
JAXJaguars quarterbacks have a 73.8 passer rating against a heavy rush this season.
Tennessee: 2nd-best in the NFL · Jacksonville: 6th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: Against a standard rush Jacksonville has been one of the league’s best passing teams, so the blitz is Tennessee’s clearest lever against it. The counterpoint is protection: Trevor Lawrence was pressured on 4% of his plays in Week 9 (lowest of 31 qualified QBs) and wasn’t sacked on any of his 26 attempts. Since Week 6, the Titans have also been successful on 38% of pass attempts when their quarterback was under pressure (8th-best).
Tennessee has pressured opposing quarterbacks on 60% of heavy-rush pass attempts in 2026, 2nd-best in the NFL, and Jacksonville’s quarterbacks have a 73.8 passer rating against a heavy rush, 6th-worst.
Data note
The two sides measure related but different stats: Tennessee’s pressure rate with a heavy rush (FTN Data’s charting of plays with added rushers) and Jacksonville’s passer rating against a heavy rush. 2026 regular season through Week 9; the under-pressure figure covers the last four weeks. The Lawrence figures come from Remarkable™ Last Week notes. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN = FTN Data and SR = Sportradar data).
Blazing Performers
1 per teamWho’s hottest heading into Sunday, per Remarkable™. Read the clue, guess, then tap to reveal.
JacksonvilleThis running back has scored a touchdown in each of his last 3 games.
TennesseeThis running back has rushed for more than 54.5 yards in each of his last 3 games, averaging over 100 per game in that stretch.
Blazing Performers presented by LineTerminal.
Market Context
External, secondaryThe current line has Jacksonville as a 10.5-point road favorite with a game total of 46.5. Line movement isn’t shown. These are displayed as external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast.
The Reasons count points the same way as the spread, 83 to 7 in Jacksonville’s favor. Since Week 6, Jacksonville has scored 35.3 points per game (2nd-best) and Tennessee has allowed 30.0 (T-3rd-worst); for the season, the Jaguars have allowed 15.1 (2nd-best) and the Titans have scored 18.0 (5th-worst). On the total, Jaguars games have gone Over in all 3 since Week 6 (tied for the most in the NFL), and Titans games have gone Over 57% of the time this season (4–3–1). These are statistical factors, not a read on the price; Inside Edge does not state that any line is mispriced.
Not financial or betting advice. Inside Edge does not set, accept or influence sportsbook prices. Wager only through licensed, regulated platforms in your jurisdiction. Line source: Inside Edge game data, Nov 10, 2026.
Player Prop Angles
6 insights| Player | Market | Insight lean | Rating | Key trend | Save |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington | Receptions, 4.5 | Under · 63% | ★★★★★ | 3.6 per game this season | |
| Trevor Lawrence | Passing yards, 239.5 | Over · 59% | ★★★★★ | Titans allowed Over in each of their last 5 | |
| Tony Pollard | Rushing attempts, 14.5 | Over · 57% | ★★★★ | Over 14.5 carries in each of his last 3 | |
| Trevor Lawrence | Rushing yards, 9.5 | Over · 57% | ★★★★ | Titans allow 20.0 QB rushing YPG, last 5 | |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Rushing attempts, 15.5 | Under · 56% | ★★★★ | Over 15.5 carries in 3 of 8 games | |
| Trevor Lawrence | Completions, 20.5 | Under · 56% | ★★★★ | Over 20.5 in 2 of 8 games |
Line source: PrizePicks line via Remarkable™. Confidence is the Inside Edge confidence in the Over (Under = 100 minus Over). Sample: 2026 regular season and last 3/5 games played.
Line source: PrizePicks line via Remarkable™. Small samples: Carnell Tate has played 7 of Tennessee’s 8 games, and Tennessee has played 3 games since Week 6 after its Week 9 bye.
Methodology
How this is calculatedHow does Inside Edge decide which team "has the edge" on a given stat?
Each comparison in this report pairs one team’s strength with the opponent’s matching weakness, ranked among all 32 teams (or among qualified players where a player is named). Edges are ordered by the size of the rank gap and by how directly the two stats measure the same thing. Inside Edge does not publish a weighted "Strong Edge / Edge / Lean" score; that scoring system is in development.
Why does this page mostly use 2026 season data?
Current-season splits reflect this year’s rosters and schemes. Where a shorter window (since Week 6, the last four weeks of games) adds useful context, the row or data note says so.
How are prop insights and confidence calculated?
Each prop insight compares the posted line to the player’s recent and season results and to what the opposing defense has allowed. The confidence figure is Inside Edge’s confidence in the Over on a 0 to 100 scale; the star rating reflects how far that figure sits from 50.
What’s the data source and refresh schedule?
Team, player and matchup statistics come from Remarkable™, Inside Edge’s proprietary sports data engine, using Sportradar and FTN Data feeds. The game line comes from Inside Edge game data, and player prop lines are PrizePicks lines via Remarkable™. Game pages refresh on a weekly cadence during the season.
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Frequently Asked Questions
5 questionsWhich team has the stronger statistical matchup profile in Jaguars at Titans?
Jacksonville holds the broader statistical edge: 83 of the 90 Inside Edge Reasons for this game favor the Jaguars, led by a defense that has allowed scores on 22% of opponent drives in the first half this season (best in the NFL) against a Tennessee offense that has scored on 24% of its first-half drives (worst), and a passing game that has been successful on 54% of its attempts against a base rush (2nd-best) against a Titans defense that has allowed 54% (worst). Tennessee’s clearest counters are its run game to the right side, at 7.7 yards per carry since Week 6 (best in the NFL) against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed 5.9 there (tied for worst), a run defense that has allowed a 33% success rate against a base rush (tied for 3rd-best), and a pass rush that has pressured quarterbacks on 60% of heavy-rush attempts (2nd-best). This reflects statistical comparison, not a forecast of the outcome.
What is the market price for Jaguars at Titans?
The current line has Jacksonville as a 10.5-point road favorite with a total of 46.5 (Inside Edge game data, Nov 10, 2026). These are external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast, and they may change before kickoff.
What is Tennessee’s strongest counterargument?
Since Week 6, Tennessee has averaged 7.7 yards per carry on rushes to the right side, best in the NFL, and Jacksonville has allowed 5.9 yards per carry on those runs, tied for worst. Over the same stretch the Titans have averaged 5.2 yards per carry on 1st down (tied for 4th-best) against a Jaguars defense that has allowed 5.8 (worst). Both teams have played 3 games since Week 6, so these are small samples. For the full season, Tennessee’s defense has allowed a 33% success rate on rush attempts against a base rush (tied for 3rd-best), and Jacksonville’s runs against a base rush have been successful 33% of the time (tied for 6th-worst).
Who are the Blazing Performers for Jaguars at Titans?
Bhayshul Tuten has scored a touchdown in each of his last 3 games and is averaging 57.3 rushing yards per game in that stretch. Tony Pollard has rushed for more than 54.5 yards in each of his last 3 games, averaging 107.3 rushing yards per game, and has topped 14.5 carries in each of them.
Are these betting picks or financial advice?
No. This page presents descriptive, sourced statistical analysis. It is not financial or betting advice, and it does not guarantee any outcome. Market pricing is shown for context only; Inside Edge does not set or influence it.