Steelers at Bengals: Matchup Edges, Statistical Evidence and Market Context
Pittsburgh Steelers (6–2) at Cincinnati Bengals (6–2)·
NFL Week 10, Sunday Night Football·
Kickoff Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 8:20 PM ET
Updated Nov 10, 2026, with Week 10 Reasons·
By Inside Edge Editorial·
Data through Week 9 of the 2026 season
24 of 44 Reasons favor Cincinnati, a close split. The Bengals’ passing game has been the NFL’s most efficient on the opponent’s side of the field, against a Steelers pass defense that ranks 3rd-worst in its own territory, and Cincinnati’s defense ranks 4th-best against light-front passing, where Pittsburgh ranks 2nd-worst. Pittsburgh’s counters are substantial: a run game averaging 5.2 yards per carry against a defense that has allowed the same, a short-yardage offense facing the NFL’s worst 3rd-and-short defense, and a run defense that has allowed the 2nd-fewest rushing yards. The market has Cincinnati as a 3.5-point home favorite. Both sides are shown below with sample, ranking and source context.
Inside Edge’s Week 10 view: Cincinnati enters Sunday night with a slight statistical edge: 24 of the game’s 44 Reasons favor the Bengals, led by a passing game that has been successful on 60% of its attempts on the opponent’s side of the field (best in the NFL) against a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed a 52% success rate in its own territory (3rd-worst). Pittsburgh’s 20 Reasons center on the run: the Steelers average 5.2 yards per carry (2nd-best), and Cincinnati has allowed 5.2 (tied for 2nd-worst). The Steelers are coming off a Week 9 bye, so their since-Week 6 figures cover 3 games. The current line has Cincinnati -3.5 with a total of 48.5, shown later in this report as external market context, not an Inside Edge forecast.
| Matchup | Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals |
| Competition | NFL, Week 10 (Sunday Night Football) |
| Kickoff | Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 8:20 PM ET · NBC |
| Venue | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati |
| Records | Pittsburgh 6–2 · Cincinnati 6–2 |
| Line | Cincinnati -3.5 · Total 48.5 |
| Analysis status | Pregame; subject to change |
| Data through | Week 9, 2026 NFL regular season |
What Stood Out Last Week
Week 9
- Jaylen Warren has averaged 6.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (998 yards on 144 touches) this season, best of 34 qualified NFL running backs.
- The defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown in its last 19 drives, the 2nd-longest active streak in the NFL, and hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown in its last 56.
- 3rd and long has been a dead end for opponents: the Steelers have allowed first downs on just 14% of those plays and 3.3 yards per dropback, both best in the NFL.
- The red zone has been a struggle for Aaron Rodgers: he has completed 49% of his passes there (18 of 37), worst of 27 qualified NFL quarterbacks.
- Joe Burrow completed 83% of his passes (24 of 29), best of 28 qualified QBs in Week 9, with a 140.1 passer rating (2nd-best) and 239 1st-half passing yards (most in the NFL).
- Ja’Marr Chase caught 10 passes for 155 yards, tied for 2nd-most receptions and 4th-most yards among NFL wide receivers, with 68 yards after the catch (tied for most).
- The offense scored on 67% of its drives (6 of 9), best in the NFL in Week 9, and converted first downs on 40% of its plays (also best).
- The pass rush went quiet: the Bengals didn’t pressure the quarterback on any of 31 pass attempts, worst in the NFL, and stuffed just 5% of running back carries (1 of 20), also worst.
Spot the Angle
Real Remarkable™ insights on Steelers at Bengals. Pick an answer to reveal the betting spin.
- Player Prop
Question 1 of 3
Which wide receiver is averaging 6.6 receptions per game this season, and has a Receptions prop of 8.0 catches this week on PrizePicks?
He caught 10 passes for 155 yards in Week 9.
The betting spin
Answer: Ja'Marr Chase. Ja'Marr Chase is averaging 6.6 receptions per game this season, and his PrizePicks Receptions line this week is 8.0. Others in this question: CeeDee Lamb (DAL): line 7.5, averaging 7.8 this season; Drake London (ATL): line 5.5, averaging 4.9 this season. Lines can move before kickoff.
See the prop angles ↓ - Matchup Angle
Question 2 of 3
On 3rd and short, which offense ranks tied for 5th-best in the NFL in conversion rate, and faces the Bengals this week, whose defense ranks worst in conversion rate allowed?
It ranks last in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: the Steelers. The Steelers have converted 67% of their 3rd-and-short plays this season. The Bengals have allowed a 76% conversion rate on 3rd and short this season. Steelers: T-5th-best in the NFL · Bengals: worst in the NFL.
See the edge ↓ - Hot Streak
Question 3 of 3
Which of these quarterbacks has the longest active streak of games with 20+ completions?
The streak began in November 2025.
The betting spin
Answer: Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow has completed 20+ passes in each of his last 14 games, the longest active streak in the NFL. Active streaks (as of Nov 10): Joe Burrow 14 · Jordan Love 7 · Caleb Williams 4 games.
See the Blazing Performers ↓
Key Findings
At a glance| Topic | Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing in opponent territory | 52% success allowed in own territory, 3rd-worst | 60% successful, best | Cincinnati |
| Passing vs. a light front | 31.1 rating, 2nd-worst | 61.9 allowed, 4th-best | Cincinnati |
| Run success vs. a base rush | 61% allowed, 7th-worst | 71% successful, 2nd-best | Cincinnati |
| 3rd-and-short conversions | 67% converted, T-5th-best | 76% allowed, worst | Pittsburgh |
| Yards per carry | 5.2, 2nd-best | 5.2 allowed, T-2nd-worst | Pittsburgh |
| Rushing yards | 677 allowed, 2nd-fewest | 690 gained, 3rd-fewest | Pittsburgh |
Rows use 2026 regular-season data through Week 9. Rankings are among all 32 NFL teams. Of the 44 Inside Edge Reasons generated for this game, 24 favor Cincinnati and 20 favor Pittsburgh.
Where Cincinnati Has the Edge
3 verified pairsCincinnati’s passing game has been the NFL’s most efficient in opponent territory, where Pittsburgh’s pass defense has been among the softest
CINThe Bengals have been successful on 60% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season.
PITThe Steelers have allowed a 52% success rate on pass attempts on their own side of the field this season.
Cincinnati: best in the NFL · Pittsburgh: 3rd-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is the largest current-season rank gap of any Reason in the game, and the recent play-action numbers point the same way. Since Week 6, the Bengals have been successful on 67% of play-action passes (2nd-best), while the Steelers have allowed a 78% success rate on them (worst) and haven’t pressured the quarterback on any play-action dropback (also worst). Joe Burrow completed 83% of his passes in Week 9, best of 28 qualified QBs. The counterpoint: Pittsburgh has allowed 0.9 touchdown passes per game this season (tied for 2nd-best) and just 6 red-zone touchdowns (2nd-fewest).
Cincinnati has been successful on 60% of its pass attempts on the opponent’s side of the field in 2026, best in the NFL, while Pittsburgh has allowed a 52% success rate on pass attempts in its own territory, 3rd-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure passing success rate in the same part of the field: Cincinnati’s offense on the opponent’s side and Pittsburgh’s defense on its own side. 2026 regular season through Week 9. The play-action figures cover games since Week 6, in which Pittsburgh played 3 games because of its Week 9 bye. The Week 9 completion rate comes from a Remarkable™ Last Week note, and the touchdown and red-zone figures from 2026 Season notes. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data / FTN = FTN Data).
Against a light front, Cincinnati’s defense has smothered passing games, and Pittsburgh’s has been among the NFL’s least productive
CINThe Bengals have allowed a 61.9 passer rating when playing a light front this season.
PITSteelers quarterbacks have a 31.1 passer rating against a light front this season.
Cincinnati: 4th-best in the NFL · Pittsburgh: 2nd-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: A light front puts fewer defenders near the line of scrimmage, usually to add help in coverage, and Pittsburgh has had little answer for it: the Steelers have been successful on just 24% of pass attempts against a light front (3rd-worst). When Cincinnati loads the box instead, it has pressured quarterbacks on 43% of pass attempts with a stacked front (4th-best), where Pittsburgh has been successful on 39% of its pass attempts (tied for 5th-worst). On early downs, the Bengals have allowed 6.3 yards per dropback (tied for 7th-best) against a Steelers offense at 6.5 yards per attempt (8th-worst). The counterpoint: since Week 6, Steelers quarterbacks have a 136.2 rating against a heavy rush (7th-best), and Cincinnati has allowed 158.3 (tied for worst).
Cincinnati has allowed a 61.9 passer rating when playing a light front in 2026, 4th-best in the NFL, while Pittsburgh’s quarterbacks have a 31.1 passer rating against light fronts, 2nd-worst.
Data note
"Light front" is a defensive alignment with fewer defenders in the box, as charted by FTN Data. Both sides measure passer rating (offense achieved, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9. The Steelers’ 24% light-front success rate comes from a Remarkable™ 2026 Season note; the stacked-front pair measures related but different stats (defensive pressure rate vs. offensive pass success rate), and the heavy-rush figures cover games since Week 6. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data / FTN = FTN Data).
Against a base rush, Cincinnati’s offense has been one of the NFL’s most efficient, on the ground and through the air
CINThe Bengals have been successful on 71% of rush attempts against a base rush this season.
PITThe Steelers have allowed a 61% success rate on rush attempts with a base rush this season.
Cincinnati: 2nd-best in the NFL · Pittsburgh: 7th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: It isn’t only the run game. Against a base rush, the Bengals have been successful on 55% of pass attempts (best in the NFL), and Pittsburgh has pressured quarterbacks on 22% of those attempts (tied for 5th-worst). Overall, the Steelers have pressured on 23% of dropbacks (tied for 6th-worst), and the Bengals have been successful on 41% of pass attempts when their quarterback was pressured (tied for 3rd-best). The counterpoint is volume: Cincinnati has rushed for 690 yards this season, 3rd-fewest, against a Steelers defense that has allowed 677, 2nd-fewest.
Cincinnati has been successful on 71% of its rush attempts against a base rush in 2026, 2nd-best in the NFL, while Pittsburgh has allowed a 61% success rate on rush attempts with a base rush, 7th-worst.
Data note
"Base rush" is FTN Data’s charting of plays where the defense rushes its standard number of players, without an added blitz. Both sides of the headline pair measure rushing success rate (offense achieved, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9. The passing pairs measure related but different stats: the Bengals’ pass success rate against the Steelers’ pressure rate. The rushing-yard totals come from a Reason that favors Pittsburgh. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data / FTN = FTN Data).
Where Pittsburgh Has the Edge
3 verified pairsPittsburgh’s short-yardage offense meets the NFL’s worst 3rd-and-short defense
PITThe Steelers have converted 67% of their 3rd-and-short plays this season.
CINThe Bengals have allowed a 76% conversion rate on 3rd and short this season.
Pittsburgh: T-5th-best in the NFL · Cincinnati: worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: It’s one of the largest current-season rank gaps among the Reasons that favor Pittsburgh, and the recent form holds up at every distance. Since Week 6, the Steelers have converted 45% of all 3rd downs (tied for 7th-best) against a Bengals defense that has allowed 50% (4th-worst), and 39% on 3rd and long (5th-best) against 33% allowed (5th-worst). Over the same stretch, Pittsburgh has scored on 50% of its 1st-half drives (6th-best), and Cincinnati has allowed scores on 53% (tied for 3rd-worst). The counterpoint: the Steelers have gone three-and-out on 32% of their 2nd-half drives this season, 3rd-worst.
Pittsburgh has converted 67% of its 3rd-and-short plays in 2026, tied for 5th-best in the NFL, while Cincinnati’s defense has allowed a 76% conversion rate on 3rd and short, worst in the NFL.
Data note
Both sides measure the same stat: 3rd-down conversion rate on 3rd and short (offense converted, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9. "Since Week 6" figures cover the last four weeks of games, in which Pittsburgh played 3 games because of its Week 9 bye. The 2nd-half three-and-out rate comes from a Remarkable™ 2026 Season note. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Pittsburgh’s backs have been among the NFL’s most efficient, and Cincinnati’s run defense among the most generous
PITThe Steelers are averaging 5.2 yards per carry this season.
CINThe Bengals have allowed 5.2 yards per carry this season.
Pittsburgh: 2nd-best in the NFL · Cincinnati: T-2nd-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: The gap holds by down and by direction: the Steelers average 5.6 yards per carry on 1st down (best in the NFL) against 5.3 allowed (5th-worst), and 6.2 on runs up the middle (best) against 4.5 allowed (tied for 4th-worst). Jaylen Warren has averaged 6.9 yards from scrimmage per touch this season, best of 34 qualified NFL running backs, and in Week 9 the Bengals stuffed just 5% of running back carries (1 of 20), worst in the NFL. The counterpoint is volume: Pittsburgh has run on 36% of its plays this season, 4th-lowest.
Pittsburgh has averaged 5.2 yards per carry in 2026, 2nd-best in the NFL, and Cincinnati has allowed 5.2 yards per carry, tied for 2nd-worst.
Data note
Pittsburgh’s side is Sportradar’s team running back split (carries by running backs); Cincinnati’s side is all carries allowed. They measure the same stat on slightly different sets of carries. 2026 regular season through Week 9. The Warren and run-rate figures come from Remarkable™ 2026 Season notes, and the Week 9 stuff rate from a Last Week note. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Pittsburgh’s run defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest rushing yards, against one of the NFL’s lowest-volume run games
PITThe Steelers have allowed 677 rushing yards this season.
CINThe Bengals have rushed for 690 yards this season.
Pittsburgh: 2nd-fewest in the NFL · Cincinnati: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
Why it matters: Pittsburgh’s run defense holds up on rate stats too: it has stuffed 23% of running back carries this season (best in the NFL) and allowed a 38% success rate on rushes (4th-best). It has allowed 4 rushing touchdowns (tied for 2nd-fewest), Cincinnati has scored 5 (tied for 5th-fewest), and the Steelers haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown in their last 56 defensive drives. The counterpoint: these are season totals, and opponents have run on just 37% of their plays against Pittsburgh (3rd-lowest), so part of the low total is volume. When the Bengals have run against a base rush, they’ve been successful 71% of the time.
Pittsburgh has allowed 677 rushing yards in 2026, 2nd-fewest in the NFL, while Cincinnati has rushed for 690 yards, 3rd-fewest.
Data note
Both sides measure season rushing yards (offense gained, defense allowed), a volume total rather than a rate; each team has played 8 games. 2026 regular season through Week 9. The stuff rate, success rate and run-rate figures come from Remarkable™ 2026 Season notes, the 56-drive figure from a streak note, and the rushing-touchdown pair from a separate Reason. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Blazing Performers
1 per teamWho’s hottest heading into Sunday night, per Remarkable™. Read the clue, guess, then tap to reveal.
PittsburghThis running back has topped his 13.5-carry PrizePicks line in 6 straight games, and no qualified NFL back has gained more yards per touch this season.
CincinnatiThis quarterback has thrown 3 or more touchdown passes in each of his last 4 games, the longest active streak in the NFL.
Blazing Performers presented by LineTerminal.
Market Context
External, secondaryThe current line has Cincinnati as a 3.5-point home favorite with a game total of 48.5. Line movement isn’t shown. These are displayed as external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast.
The Reasons count leans the same way as the spread, but narrowly, 24 to 20 in Cincinnati’s favor. The scoring Reasons are mixed: this season Pittsburgh has scored 5.1 points per game in the 1st quarter (tied for 9th-best) against a Cincinnati defense that has allowed 7.1 (2nd-worst), and the Bengals have scored 13.8 points per game in the 1st half (8th-best) against a Steelers defense that has allowed 12.1 (8th-worst). Since Week 6, Pittsburgh has allowed 1.0 1st-quarter point per game (2nd-best), and Cincinnati has scored 2.3 (7th-worst). These are statistical factors, not a read on the price; Inside Edge does not state that any line is mispriced.
Not financial or betting advice. Inside Edge does not set, accept or influence sportsbook prices. Wager only through licensed, regulated platforms in your jurisdiction. Line source: Inside Edge game data, Nov 10, 2026.
Player Prop Angles
8 insights| Player | Market | Insight lean | Rating | Key trend | Save |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | Pass completions, 21.5 | Over · 62% | ★★★★★ | Over in 5 of 8 games; 21.9 per game | |
| Darnell Washington | Receptions, 2.5 | Over · 62% | ★★★★★ | 4+ targets in 4 of his last 5 | |
| Ja’Marr Chase | Receptions, 8 | Under · 62% | ★★★★★ | Steelers: no WR over 8 in last 5 | |
| Rico Dowdle | Rushing yards, 31.5 | Over · 61% | ★★★★★ | Over in each of his last 3 games | |
| Jaylen Warren | Rushing yards, 61.5 | Over · 59% | ★★★★★ | 98.0 per game, last 3 | |
| Tee Higgins | Receptions, 5.5 | Over · 59% | ★★★★★ | 7+ targets in each of his last 3 | |
| Ja’Marr Chase | Receiving yards, 91.5 | Under · 58% | ★★★★★ | Steelers: no WR over 91.5 in last 5 | |
| Jaylen Warren | Carries, 13.5 | Over · 57% | ★★★★ | Over in each of his last 6 games |
Line source: PrizePicks line via Remarkable™. Confidence is the Inside Edge confidence in the Over (Under = 100 minus Over). Sample: 2026 regular season and last 3/5 games played. Small sample: Rico Dowdle has played 5 of Pittsburgh’s 8 games.
Line source: PrizePicks line via Remarkable™. Ja’Marr Chase has topped 91.5 receiving yards in 3 of 8 games this season. Joe Burrow’s passing-yards line (288.5) and completions line (26.5) rate 1 star and aren’t shown, and PrizePicks has no passing-touchdown line for him in this pull.
Methodology
How this is calculatedHow does Inside Edge decide which team "has the edge" on a given stat?
Each comparison in this report pairs one team’s strength with the opponent’s matching weakness, ranked among all 32 teams (or among qualified players where a player is named). Edges are ordered by the size of the rank gap and by how directly the two stats measure the same thing. Inside Edge does not publish a weighted "Strong Edge / Edge / Lean" score; that scoring system is in development.
Why does this page mostly use 2026 season data?
Current-season splits reflect this year’s rosters and schemes. Where a shorter window (since Week 6, the last four weeks of games) adds useful context, the row or data note says so.
How are prop insights and confidence calculated?
Each prop insight compares the PrizePicks line (via Remarkable™) to the player’s recent and season results and to what the opposing defense has allowed. The confidence figure is Inside Edge’s confidence in the Over on a 0 to 100 scale; the star rating reflects how far that figure sits from 50.
What’s the data source and refresh schedule?
Team, player and matchup statistics come from Remarkable™, Inside Edge’s proprietary sports data engine, using Sportradar and FTN Data feeds. Market prices come from Inside Edge game data. Game pages refresh on a weekly cadence during the season.
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Frequently Asked Questions
5 questionsWhich team has the stronger statistical matchup profile in Steelers at Bengals?
Cincinnati holds a narrow statistical edge: 24 of the 44 Inside Edge Reasons for this game favor the Bengals, led by a passing game that has been successful on 60% of its attempts on the opponent’s side of the field this season (best in the NFL) against a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed a 52% success rate in its own territory (3rd-worst), and a defense that has allowed a 61.9 passer rating with a light front (4th-best) against Steelers quarterbacks who have a 31.1 rating against one (2nd-worst). Pittsburgh’s 20 Reasons center on the run game and short yardage: the Steelers average 5.2 yards per carry (2nd-best) against a Cincinnati defense that has allowed 5.2 (tied for 2nd-worst), they have converted 67% of their 3rd-and-short plays (tied for 5th-best) against the NFL’s worst 3rd-and-short defense, and their run defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest rushing yards. This reflects statistical comparison, not a forecast of the outcome.
What is the market price for Steelers at Bengals?
The current line has Cincinnati as a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 48.5 (Inside Edge game data, Nov 10, 2026). These are external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast, and they may change before kickoff.
What is Pittsburgh’s strongest counterargument?
Pittsburgh has averaged 5.2 yards per carry this season, 2nd-best in the NFL, and Cincinnati has allowed 5.2 yards per carry, tied for 2nd-worst. The Steelers have also converted 67% of their 3rd-and-short plays (tied for 5th-best) against a Bengals defense that has allowed a 76% conversion rate (worst in the NFL), and their defense has allowed just 677 rushing yards (2nd-fewest) against a Cincinnati offense that has rushed for 690 (3rd-fewest). The Steelers were on bye in Week 9, so their since-Week 6 figures cover 3 games.
Who are the Blazing Performers for Steelers at Bengals?
Jaylen Warren has topped 13.5 carries in each of his last 6 games, is averaging 98.0 rushing yards per game over his last 3, and has averaged 6.9 yards from scrimmage per touch this season, best of 34 qualified NFL running backs. Joe Burrow has thrown 3 or more touchdown passes in each of his last 4 games, the longest active streak in the NFL, and has completed 20 or more passes in each of his last 14 games, also the longest active streak.
Are these betting picks or financial advice?
No. This page presents descriptive, sourced statistical analysis. It is not financial or betting advice, and it does not guarantee any outcome. Market pricing is shown for context only; Inside Edge does not set or influence it.