Vikings at Packers: Matchup Edges, Statistical Evidence and Market Context
Minnesota Vikings (6–2) at Green Bay Packers (6–3)·
NFL Week 10·
Kickoff Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ET
Updated Nov 10, 2026, with Week 10 Reasons·
By Inside Edge Editorial·
Data through Week 9 of the 2026 season
20 of 33 Reasons favor Green Bay. The Packers’ defense has been among the NFL’s best against quarterbacks facing a heavy rush, where Minnesota’s passing game ranks last, and Green Bay’s play-action passing ranks 3rd. Minnesota’s counters are real, not token: its defense has been the NFL’s best in the 4th quarter and in the red zone, and its run defense ranks near the top against a Packers ground game near the bottom. This game has fewer Reasons than most (33), so each side’s case rests on a smaller set of comparisons. The market has Green Bay as a 4.5-point home favorite. Both sides are shown below with sample, ranking and source context.
Inside Edge’s Week 10 view: Green Bay enters Sunday with the stronger statistical profile: 20 of the game’s 33 Reasons favor the Packers, led by a defense that has allowed a 58.2 passer rating against a heavy rush (2nd-best in the NFL) while Minnesota’s quarterbacks have a 40.1 rating against one (worst). Minnesota’s 13 Reasons are concentrated on defense: the Vikings have allowed a 41.6 passer rating in the 4th quarter and 3.0 points per red zone drive, both best in the NFL. The Vikings’ season passing figures cover all of their quarterbacks, and no Minnesota quarterback appears in this week’s prop insights. The current line has Green Bay -4.5 with a total of 40.5, shown later in this report as external market context, not an Inside Edge forecast.
| Matchup | Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers |
| Competition | NFL, Week 10 |
| Kickoff | Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ET · FOX |
| Venue | Green Bay |
| Records | Minnesota 6–2 · Green Bay 6–3 |
| Line | Green Bay -4.5 · Total 40.5 |
| Analysis status | Pregame; subject to change |
| Data through | Week 9, 2026 NFL regular season |
What Stood Out Last Week
Week 9
- Justin Jefferson was targeted 11 times, tied for 5th-most among NFL receivers in Week 9.
- Vikings running backs weren’t stuffed on any of their 11 carries (0%), best in the NFL.
- The defense hit the quarterback on 32% of pass attempts, tied for 3rd-best in the NFL, and allowed 0 broken tackles (tied for fewest).
- The passing game stalled: Carson Wentz completed 8 of 25 passes for a passer rating of 8.9, worst of 30 qualified QBs, and Minnesota picked up first downs on just 7 of 46 plays (15%), worst in the NFL.
- Jordan Love posted a 153.2 passer rating on 29 attempts, best of 30 qualified QBs in Week 9, at 12.8 yards per attempt (also best).
- Matthew Golden had 10 catches for 164 yards, 3rd-most receiving yards among NFL receivers, as Packers wideouts combined for 360 receiving yards, most in the NFL.
- The defense forced 4 turnovers, 3rd-most in the NFL, and pressured the quarterback 12 times (tied for 4th-most).
- The run defense gave ground: Green Bay allowed first downs on 50% of rush attempts, worst in the NFL, and 10.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (also worst).
Spot the Angle
Real Remarkable™ insights on Vikings at Packers. Pick an answer to reveal the betting spin.
- Player Prop
Question 1 of 3
Which wide receiver is averaging 7.0 receptions per game over his last 5 games, and has a Receptions prop of 5.5 catches this week on PrizePicks?
He has been targeted 7 or more times in every game this season.
The betting spin
Answer: Matthew Golden. Matthew Golden is averaging 7.0 receptions per game over his last 5 games, and his PrizePicks Receptions line this week is 5.5. Others in this question: Carnell Tate (TEN): line 4.5, averaging 5.4 over his last 5 games; Malik Nabers (NYG): line 6.0, averaging 8.2 over his last 5 games. Lines can move before kickoff.
See the prop angles ↓ - Matchup Angle
Question 2 of 3
Since Week 6, on 3rd and long, which offense ranks 2nd-best in the NFL in conversion rate, and faces the Vikings this week, whose defense ranks 3rd-worst in conversion rate allowed?
It ranks 3rd-worst in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: the Packers. The Packers have a 43% conversion rate on 3rd and long since Week 6. The Vikings have allowed a 38% conversion rate on 3rd and long since Week 6. Packers: 2nd-best in the NFL · Vikings: 3rd-worst in the NFL.
See the edge ↓ - Key Insight
Question 3 of 3
Which team’s games have gone UNDER the 3rd-most often in the NFL this season, and takes on the Vikings this week?
It’s the 3rd-highest Under rate in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: the Packers. Games involving the Packers have gone UNDER in 67% (6-3) of their games (27.3% ROI) this season — 3rd-most in the NFL.
See the market context ↓
Key Findings
At a glance| Topic | Minnesota | Green Bay | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing vs. a heavy rush | 40.1 rating, worst | 58.2 allowed, 2nd-best | Green Bay |
| 3rd-and-long conversions (since Week 6) | 38% allowed, 3rd-worst | 43% converted, 2nd-best | Green Bay |
| Play-action passing | 108.5 rating allowed, 8th-worst | 124.0 rating, 3rd-best | Green Bay |
| 4th-quarter passing | 41.6 rating allowed, best | 59.7 rating, 3rd-worst | Minnesota |
| Points per red zone drive | 3.0 allowed, best | 3.9 scored, T-4th-worst | Minnesota |
| Rushing success rate | 38% allowed, T-4th-best | 34% successful, 2nd-worst | Minnesota |
Rows use 2026 regular-season data through Week 9, except the 3rd-and-long row, which covers the last four weeks of games (since Week 6). Rankings are among all 32 NFL teams. Of the 33 Inside Edge Reasons generated for this game, 20 favor Green Bay and 13 favor Minnesota.
Where Green Bay Has the Edge
3 verified pairsGreen Bay’s defense has shut down quarterbacks facing a heavy rush, where Minnesota’s passing game ranks last
GBThe Packers have allowed a 58.2 passer rating against a heavy rush this season.
MINVikings quarterbacks have a 40.1 passer rating against a heavy rush this season.
Green Bay: 2nd-best in the NFL · Minnesota: worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is the largest rank gap of any Reason in the game. It fits a broader pattern: since Week 6, Vikings quarterbacks have a 67.7 passer rating (4th-worst) against a Packers defense that has allowed 78.2 (6th-best), and Green Bay has 26 sacks this season (tied for 4th-most) while Minnesota’s quarterbacks have been sacked 23 times (tied for 10th-most). The counterpoint: Carson Wentz was sacked on just 4% of his pass attempts in Week 9, tied for 9th-best.
Green Bay’s defense has allowed a 58.2 passer rating against a heavy rush in 2026, 2nd-best in the NFL, while Minnesota’s quarterbacks have a 40.1 passer rating against a heavy rush, worst in the NFL.
Data note
"Heavy rush" is FTN Data’s charting of plays where the defense sends extra pass rushers. Both sides measure passer rating (offense achieved, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9; the since-Week 6 ratings cover the last four weeks of games. Minnesota’s figures cover all of its quarterbacks. The Week 9 sack rate comes from a Remarkable™ Last Week note. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data / FTN = FTN Data).
Since Week 6, Green Bay has been one of the NFL’s best on 3rd and long, and Minnesota’s defense one of the worst
GBThe Packers have a 43% conversion rate on 3rd and long since Week 6.
MINThe Vikings have allowed a 38% conversion rate on 3rd and long since Week 6.
Green Bay: 2nd-best in the NFL · Minnesota: 3rd-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: Extending drives in long-yardage spots keeps an offense on the field, and it shows up across all 3rd downs: since Week 6, Green Bay has converted 48% (4th-best) against a Minnesota defense that has allowed 43% (tied for 9th-worst). The Packers have also been successful on 44% of plays against a light front over that stretch (tied for 9th-best), where the Vikings have allowed a 60% success rate (worst). The caution: Green Bay’s offense has gained 5+ yards on just 35% of 1st-down plays this season (tied for 2nd-worst), which is how it ends up in 3rd and long.
Since Week 6 of the 2026 season, Green Bay has converted 43% of its 3rd-and-long plays, 2nd-best in the NFL, while Minnesota’s defense has allowed a 38% conversion rate on 3rd and long, 3rd-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure the same stat: 3rd-down conversion rate on 3rd and long (offense converted, defense allowed). "Since Week 6" is the Previous 4 Weeks window, the last four weeks of games, so samples are small. The light-front figures are FTN Data charting over the same window; the 1st-down figure covers the 2026 season and comes from a Reason that favors Minnesota. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data / FTN = FTN Data).
Green Bay’s play-action passing ranks near the top of the NFL, and Minnesota’s defense has struggled against it
GBPackers quarterbacks have a 124.0 passer rating on play-action passes this season.
MINThe Vikings have allowed a 108.5 passer rating on play-action passes this season.
Green Bay: 3rd-best in the NFL · Minnesota: 8th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: Play action is one of the few areas where Minnesota’s pass defense ranks in the bottom third. Jordan Love posted a 153.2 passer rating in Week 9, best of 30 qualified quarterbacks, and is averaging 290.9 passing yards per game this season. The counterpoint is real: the Vikings have allowed 186.9 passing yards per game this season and haven’t allowed more than 263.5 in any of their last 5 games.
Green Bay’s quarterbacks have a 124.0 passer rating on play-action passes in 2026, 3rd-best in the NFL, while Minnesota has allowed a 108.5 rating on play-action passes, 8th-worst.
Data note
Play action is charted by FTN Data. Both sides measure passer rating on play-action passes (offense achieved, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9. Jordan Love’s season and Minnesota’s passing-yards-allowed figures come from this week’s prop insights; the Week 9 rating comes from a Remarkable™ Last Week note. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN = FTN Data).
Where Minnesota Has the Edge
3 verified pairsMinnesota’s pass defense has been the NFL’s best in the 4th quarter, where Green Bay’s passing has faded
MINThe Vikings have allowed a 41.6 passer rating in the 4th quarter this season.
GBPackers quarterbacks have a 59.7 passer rating in the 4th quarter this season.
Minnesota: best in the NFL · Green Bay: 3rd-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is the largest rank gap among the Reasons that favor Minnesota, and it matches the scoring split: the Vikings have allowed 6.4 points per game in the 2nd half (2nd-best), while the Packers have scored 9.8 (8th-worst). Minnesota has also allowed a 50.4 passer rating against a light rush (8th-best), where Green Bay’s quarterbacks have a 42.4 rating (tied for 5th-worst).
Minnesota’s defense has allowed a 41.6 passer rating in the 4th quarter in 2026, best in the NFL, while Green Bay’s quarterbacks have a 59.7 rating in the 4th quarter, 3rd-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure passer rating in the 4th quarter (offense achieved, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9. The light-rush pair is FTN Data charting of plays with fewer than the standard number of pass rushers. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data / FTN = FTN Data).
In the red zone, Minnesota’s defense has allowed the fewest points per trip in the NFL
MINThe Vikings have allowed 3.0 points per red zone drive this season.
GBThe Packers have scored 3.9 points per red zone drive this season.
Minnesota: best in the NFL · Green Bay: T-4th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: It’s the other side of Green Bay’s 3rd-down edge: the Packers have extended drives, but they’ve scored fewer points per red zone trip than most teams. Minnesota’s defense also wins on early downs, allowing 5+ yards on just 39% of 1st-down plays this season (tied for 3rd-best), against a Packers offense that gains 5+ on 35% (tied for 2nd-worst). The counterpoint: Green Bay scored 45 points in Week 9.
Minnesota’s defense has allowed 3.0 points per red zone drive in 2026, best in the NFL, while Green Bay has scored 3.9 points per red zone drive, tied for 4th-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure the same stat: points per red zone drive (offense scored, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9. The 1st-down pair measures the share of 1st-down plays gaining 5+ yards. The Week 9 score comes from the NFL.com schedule page. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Minnesota’s run defense ranks near the top of the NFL, and Green Bay’s run game near the bottom
MINThe Vikings have allowed a 38% success rate on rush attempts this season.
GBThe Packers have been successful on 34% of their rush attempts this season.
Minnesota: T-4th-best in the NFL · Green Bay: 2nd-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: The gap holds in specific looks too: against motion, Minnesota has allowed a 35% rushing success rate (tied for 3rd-best) while Green Bay has been successful on 32% of its runs with a player in motion (3rd-worst), and against a base front it’s 38% allowed (tied for 6th-best) vs. 34% (tied for 2nd-worst). The counterpoint: Kaleb Johnson averaged 3.2 yards after contact per carry in Week 9, best of 30 qualified running backs, and the Packers ran on 50% of their plays (5th-highest).
Minnesota has allowed a 38% success rate on rush attempts in 2026, tied for 4th-best in the NFL, while Green Bay has been successful on 34% of its rush attempts, 2nd-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure rushing success rate (offense achieved, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9. The motion and base-front splits are FTN Data charting. The Week 9 figures come from Remarkable™ Last Week notes. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data / FTN = FTN Data).
Blazing Performers
1 per teamWho’s hottest heading into Sunday, per Remarkable™. Read the clue, guess, then tap to reveal.
MinnesotaThis unit has recorded at least one sack in every game since November 2024, the longest active streak in the NFL.
Green BayThis receiver has been targeted 10 or more times in each of his last 4 games and has caught each of his last 10 targets.
Blazing Performers presented by LineTerminal.
Market Context
External, secondaryThe current line has Green Bay as a 4.5-point home favorite with a game total of 40.5. Line movement isn’t shown. These are displayed as external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast.
The Reasons count points the same way as the spread, 20 to 13 in Green Bay’s favor. On scoring since Week 6, Minnesota has scored 0.0 points per game in the 1st quarter (worst) and 6.3 in the 1st half (2nd-worst), against a Packers defense that has allowed 2.5 (tied for 5th-best) and 8.5 (tied for 9th-best). On totals, Packers games have gone Under 6 of 9 times this season (3rd-highest Under rate in the NFL). On spreads, Green Bay is 1–7–1 against the spread when giving 4 or more points since the 2025 season (5th-worst). These are statistical factors, not a read on the price; Inside Edge does not state that any line is mispriced.
Not financial or betting advice. Inside Edge does not set, accept or influence sportsbook prices. Wager only through licensed, regulated platforms in your jurisdiction. Line source: Inside Edge game data, Nov 10, 2026.
Player Prop Angles
2 insights| Player | Market | Insight lean | Rating | Key trend | Save |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | Receiving yards, 79.5 | Under · 60% | ★★★★★ | Under in each of his last 6 games | |
| Christian Watson | Receptions, 4.5 | Over · 57% | ★★★★ | 6+ targets in each of his last 5 |
Line source: PrizePicks line via Remarkable™. Confidence is the Inside Edge confidence in the Over (Under = 100 minus Over). Sample: 2026 regular season and last 3/5 games played; Jefferson has played 7 of Minnesota’s 8 games.
Line source: PrizePicks line via Remarkable™. Ratings below 4 stars are mentioned for context only and aren’t in the table above.
Methodology
How this is calculatedHow does Inside Edge decide which team "has the edge" on a given stat?
Each comparison in this report pairs one team’s strength with the opponent’s matching weakness, ranked among all 32 teams (or among qualified players where a player is named). Edges are ordered by the size of the rank gap and by how directly the two stats measure the same thing. Inside Edge does not publish a weighted "Strong Edge / Edge / Lean" score; that scoring system is in development.
Why does this page mostly use 2026 season data?
Current-season splits reflect this year’s rosters and schemes. Where a shorter window (since Week 6, the last four weeks of games) adds useful context, the row or data note says so. Betting trends that reach back to the 2025 season are labeled.
How are prop insights and confidence calculated?
Each prop insight compares the posted line to the player’s recent and season results and to what the opposing defense has allowed. The confidence figure is Inside Edge’s confidence in the Over on a 0 to 100 scale; the star rating reflects how far that figure sits from 50.
What’s the data source and refresh schedule?
Team, player and matchup statistics come from Remarkable™, Inside Edge’s proprietary sports data engine, using Sportradar and FTN Data feeds. Game lines come from Inside Edge game data, and prop lines are PrizePicks lines via Remarkable™. Game pages refresh on a weekly cadence during the season.
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Frequently Asked Questions
5 questionsWhich team has the stronger statistical matchup profile in Vikings at Packers?
Green Bay holds the broader statistical edge: 20 of the 33 Inside Edge Reasons for this game favor the Packers, led by a defense that has allowed a 58.2 passer rating against a heavy rush this season (2nd-best in the NFL) while Minnesota’s quarterbacks have a 40.1 rating against a heavy rush (worst), and a passing game with a 124.0 rating on play-action passes (3rd-best). Minnesota’s clearest counters are a defense that has allowed a 41.6 passer rating in the 4th quarter (best in the NFL), 3.0 points per red zone drive (best) and a 38% success rate on rush attempts (tied for 4th-best). This reflects statistical comparison, not a forecast of the outcome.
What is the market price for Vikings at Packers?
The current line has Green Bay as a 4.5-point home favorite with a total of 40.5 (Inside Edge game data, Nov 10, 2026). These are external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast, and they may change before kickoff.
What is Minnesota’s strongest counterargument?
Minnesota’s defense has allowed a 41.6 passer rating in the 4th quarter this season, best in the NFL, while Green Bay’s quarterbacks have a 59.7 rating in the 4th quarter, 3rd-worst. The Vikings have also allowed 3.0 points per red zone drive (best) against a Packers offense that scores 3.9 (tied for 4th-worst), and a 38% success rate on rush attempts (tied for 4th-best) against a Green Bay run game that has been successful on 34% (2nd-worst).
Who are the Blazing Performers for Vikings at Packers?
Minnesota’s defense has recorded at least one sack in each of its last 36 games, the longest active streak in the NFL (the next-longest is 27). Matthew Golden has been targeted 10 or more times in each of his last 4 games, tied with two other receivers for the longest active streak, and is averaging 7.7 receptions per game over his last 3 games.
Are these betting picks or financial advice?
No. This page presents descriptive, sourced statistical analysis. It is not financial or betting advice, and it does not guarantee any outcome. Market pricing is shown for context only; Inside Edge does not set or influence it.